The Venezuelan opposition has announced that a coup was committed by a head of state. And called on the population to organize a counter coup.
At first glance it may seem that we have before us another example of a color revolution. The opposition advocates the overthrow of the legitimately elected in 2013 President of Venezuela. The protesters have the support of the West, with which Nicolas Maduro has a very complicated relationship. Not being able to remove the President by legal means, they proclaimed a course on protest and military action. That could very well lead to the overthrow of the current government.
However, the situation in Venezuela does not fit the traditional Maidan matrix. The protest is not because President Maduro has chosen the «wrong» foreign policy, but because he, or rather his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, chose the wrong economic. Years of parasitism on petrodollars, the import of most consumer goods and even their subsidies through the budget – all of it backfired after the fall of oil prices. Now the country has a severe shortage of a range of goods (there was a period when it was difficult to buy toilet paper), and inflation this year could reach 700%.
These economic difficulties led to victory at the 2015 parliamentary elections of local opposition. And its leaders immediately declared that the country out of the crisis needs a new helmsman. So they announced the intention to arrange the impeachment of the President.
Theoretically, the opposition had the opportunity to do so quickly and clearly – through obtained a constitutional majority in Parliament. However, the authorities failed to challenge the election of some deputies, so that the majority in fact did not work and had to go through a long, three-stage way.
For a start, the opposition needed to collect the signatures of 1% of the electorate, which was done at the end of may. The second step is already 20% of signatures across the country – these signatures the Democrats had to present October 26-28. Well, in the end they had to collect seven million signatures — one more than the number of votes for Nicolas Maduro in the last election. After this, the country is assigned and a referendum is held. The opposition was extremely important to complete the entire procedure until 10 January 2017. Otherwise even vote «Yes» in the referendum will not bring early elections and regime change — after the first decade of January 2017 Maduro, by law, can only shake his own resignation in favour of Vice-President or any other his protege.
The referendum is not necessary
The majority of the population supports the idea of displacement Maduro, but all knew that to implement this procedure will be very difficult. Especially without a favorable attitude of the Supreme Court and the National electoral Council (local, CEC), which was controlled by Obama’s people.
In fact, the fears materialized. The first serious tripped by the court. He said impeachment proceedings – now the protesters need to raise at least 20% of valid votes in each of the 23 provinces of the country. Technically nothing wrong — if you start from the results of parliamentary elections in 2015, all provinces of the country the share of supporters of the opposition exceeded 20% (the worst of all the Democrats made in the state of Delta Amacuro, there gaining 36% of votes). However, the court’s decision complicates the procedure of collecting votes, and given that the Democrats are required to submit verified signatures 26-28 October, they could simply not catch. The Supreme court clearly stated that «the failure to collect the required percentage of signatures in each state or Metropolitan area will nullify the legality of the procedure of recall of the President.»
However, Democrats were not even allowed to try. Under the pretext of violations in the process of collecting the signatures of 1% in the States of Bolivar, Aragua, Carabobo, Monagas and Apure NIS has suspended the impeachment proceedings. In response, on 23 October, the national Assembly gathered at an emergency meeting, and according to its results adopted a statement on the President violated the constitutional order and the organization of them of a coup. Apparently, in the coming days, expect a massive Venezuela protests, the result of which can be very unpleasant for Maduro.
Who is to blame?
The President himself refuses to admit his own mistakes and continues to look for external enemies and finds them in the person of Washington. «I know that the U.S. Embassy in Venezuela is worth preparing for acts of violence, of terrorism against peace in our country. They want to spend them in the coming days, to blackmail our country, but I will not allow this to be done,» says the President.
His claims are not unfounded – the United States is really interested in regime change in Venezuela. USA back to Latin America, and Venezuela (or the Venezuelan petrodollar wallet) in the hands of the friendly American forces will strengthen Washington’s position in negotiations with the smaller Latin American countries, and with Cuba, which no Venezuelan money got tight.
However, not so clear. First, the problem of «savitskogo regime» arose not so much thanks to the efforts of the United States as because of the extremely questionable economic policies of Caracas. Chavistas failed to build on the basis of the left ideas of a sustainable economic model. Instead, we created a system of universal consumption and squandering, which failed immediately after the fall in oil prices. Second, the change of government in Caracas, not only of Americans, but most of the countries in the region. A number of American States (including Argentina, Brazil and Peru) expressed «concern» about the suspension of the referendum. «Paralysis of the process and the decision of the judicial authorities of Venezuela to prevent the departure of the country’s main opposition leaders threaten the ability to establish a dialogue between the government and the opposition, which would ensure a peaceful exit from the critical situation being experienced by the brotherly country,» — said in their joint statement. «Left turn» is not attractive anymore.