Ukraine conflict shifts from East to West

Non-European choice

The overwhelming majority (82 votes to 11, with 17 abstentions), PACE adopted a resolution condemning Poroshenko recently signed a new law «On education». In September, forces of the ruling Pro-presidential coalition, the Verkhovna Rada has changed only one article (seventh) of the act. Next year the only language of instruction in public institutions of the country should be Ukrainian language only. The languages of national minorities (to whom assigned and Russian) will be studied by students only through fifth grade. Moreover, this indulgence is valid only until 2020. After his middle and high school waiting for a total Ukrainization.

Against amendments to the law on education, strongly supported Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria and Russia – countries whose national languages are taught in many schools of Ukraine. In the country the innovation was controversial is very, very much-even the staunch patriots of the state.

Games with the language issue already so costly for Ukraine. Suffice it to recall that the formal countdown event «Russian spring» should be from the ill-fated decision of the Verkhovna Rada on 23 February 2014 that abolished the law on regional languages. This, as well as of a number of radical politicians-nationalists, was enough to make a considerable part of Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine felt in the new, post-Maidan government as a threat to their accustomed way of life.

Who where fighting

Of course, be too simplistic to interpret the conflict in the Donbas as ethnic. It not really make out, even at the level of iconic figures. The head of DNR Alexander Zakharchenko, a Ukrainian, and a press-the Secretary «Right sector» Artem Skoropadsky (to change the names — Bychkov) is a Russian. Is this not an illustration of the futility of simple explanations of the conflict? Moreover, according to the geography of losses of the Ukrainian army, the brunt of the war bear is almost completely Russian-speaking Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv. Western Ukraine (if not to take the Lviv region), according to official data, gives a relatively small percentage of warring.

So, if you take the stronghold of Ukrainian nationalism in Ternopil oblast, local natives, fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian army killed a little more than the Ukrainian soldiers come from official Kiev-controlled part of the Donetsk region (a donbasstsev on the Ukrainian front command is trying to send). In turn, composed of groups of DNR and LNR, there are many natives of different regions of Ukraine, even the same city.

The true marker that separates the participants of the war, not ethnicity and not language, and the attitude to Russia, to the path of civilization, which, in their opinion, Ukraine should follow. For this country is absolutely normal and normal is when people, all his life spoke only in Russian call Ukrainian their native language and configured to Russia is extremely hostile.

Hungary threatens punishments

All this, of course, well aware of Poroshenko (the good, he does from a family of Russian-speaking Ukrainians). But he decided to scratch his eternal wound – slippery to touch on the «language issue». And received the expected outrage, neither Russia nor Pro-Russian residents of Donbass and Crimea (this of course), and Western neighbors: Hungary and Romania. Romanian-Moldovan, and especially the Hungarian minority of the country has long been living in the actual regime of cultural autonomy, the major component of which are the schools in local languages.

Hungary, especially under President Viktor Orban, who carefully ensures that the identity of the Hungarian community of Transcarpathia and its relationship with the historical homeland, no one attempted. Local ethnic Hungarians pay from official Budapest for what their children are learning in schools with Hungarian language of teaching. Applicants from out of the chop or Uzhgorod willingly accepted to universities in Hungary.

Special incentives are to assimilate the Hungarians of Transcarpathia there. However, the problem of Hungarian separatism exists more as a nationalist «horror story». Historically the status quo of the Hungarians and Romanians of Chernivtsi (where the situation is partly similar to the one in Transcarpathia – is that Romania actively supports its compatriots) are quite satisfied.

The education act can change everything. Hungary already Kiev threatens terrible punishments: the disclosure of the names of those individuals in the Ukrainian corridors of power, who acquired Hungarian citizenship, the blocking of the European aspirations of Ukraine and even measures on the abolition of visa-free regime with the EU for its Eastern neighbor. The PACE resolution, it would appear that the first of the realized threats of the official Budapest. Initially, this document was written by the head of the Estonian delegation Andres Herkel politician, quite anti-Russian and Pro-Ukrainian partly configured. Incidentally, he had abstained in the vote. Resolution has become more radical because of the amendments made by the delegations of Hungary and Romania.

To ignite the cold war

If we translate the text of the resulting document from the diplomatic to the human, it turns out that Ukraine was obliged to change its legislation. So, it should make the law on education for examination to the European Commission for democracy through law (the socalled Venice Commission) and to consider all of its comments.

All this is like a demonstrative slap in the face Poroshenko. That’s just it, oddly enough, quite satisfied. To live by the principle «war will write off everything» during the years of conflict in the Donbass Ukrainian authorities have become accustomed. The war in the East is definitely coming to an end. Why not ignite a war in the West – especially that «fight» they have only threatening statements? It is hard to imagine that the country-member of NATO, such as Hungary, will move its troops in the Carpathians.

However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine four years ago too, it was hard to imagine. But Poroshenko seems to believe that the game is worth the candle. After all, soon his relationship with the West in any case will not be cloudless. The corrupt regime in Kiev, though its primary purpose to repeat the experience of Viktor Yanukovych, besides being an obstacle to dialogue with Russia, all the more annoyed the US and many EU countries.

In these circumstances the risk to play too, should be, it seems Poroshenko is a moderate cost compared to the opportunities. A vision to mobilize under the banners of the nationalist electorate, an Association of companies facing the prospect of external pressure and success in finding a fault in that the movement of Ukraine to Europe and stopped at the stage of visa-free regime (as it is – the merit of Yanukovych rather than Poroshenko), the current leader of the country it is possible to captivate. And what will happen, will happen. The recent history of Ukraine has taught us, if its leaders so that it is not necessary to build long-term strategies. Here, everything can change.

Ukraine conflict shifts from East to West 13.10.2017

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