To stop all the more clearly threatening to US interests assertion of Russia in the middle East and in the Mediterranean sea, should at any cost in the coming months to stop the construction of a bridge to Crimea across the Kerch Strait. It urgently needs to make one of the cornerstones of Washington’s foreign policy. This was the leitmotif of the participants of the International conference on Maritime security concluded in Kiev. The forum was attended by influential officials, top military officials and experts from NATO countries and Ukraine. Including the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, commander of the Naval forces of Ukraine (Ukrainian Navy) Vice-Admiral Ihor Voronchenko, Deputy Minister of defence in this country the Admiral Igor kabanenko.
Judging by the comments in Kiev the media, with the great interest the participants of the conference were invited close to the administration of President Donald trump the head of the Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown Foundation) Glenn Howard. And he did not disappoint. «Russia will not Mediterranean military force, while it is present in the Crimea, because Crimea and the Mediterranean are interrelated,» said Howard. And he continued: «the naval activities of Russia in the Mediterranean is closely linked with the Crimea. We have seen that the consolidation of the naval assets of Russia in Syria is made possible by the annexation of Crimea and the creation of the corridor in the Crimea. Was used by Russian capabilities in Crimea».
Of course, you noticed the obvious logical contradiction in the words of the Lord President of the Foundation in the presentation of Ukrainian news agencies: Russia, they say, cannot become firm foothold in the Mediterranean, until you withdraw from the Crimea. But on the contrary. It is the Crimea and Sevastopol, and gave our country the ability to effectively and victoriously to intervene in the war in Syria. And that Sevastopol was the starting point for ships and vessels «Syrian Express» heading to Tartus.
Most likely, Howard actually said exactly the opposite: to quickly turn out Russia from the Middle East she should again quickly to take away the Crimea. And the rest of the news agencies — translation mistakes. But the main thing is clear: Howard and sent him, apparently, in Kiev, Washington is extremely irritated military and political opportunities that emerged in Moscow after returning to her Peninsula and situated on its territory of military and naval bases.
What are the recipes of the new «seizure» of Crimea from the Russian Federation on the patterns of the Jamestown Foundation? Howard called two ways. The first is the increased international political pressure. Guest from overseas put it this way: «the Immediate, direct threat is the Kerch Strait. We hope that the winter will slow down the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait — it will give us time to figure out what to do with this issue in the spring. We will have a little respite to policy thought, what should be the strategy… We want government representatives, senior government officials more aware of the problem of the Kerch Strait and have already started to do something. There are also important efforts to elaborate a joint strategy with the United States and allies on the application of the law of the sea».
The head of the American Fund also announced that in 2018 Jamestown Foundation «hopes to organize an international conference in Washington dedicated to the Kerch Strait to the issue is appropriate for public officials at the White house, the national security Council (the United States — «SP»).
Another set of steps in solving the problem of the Crimea discussed at the conference is purely military. About the organization of combat actions in the foreseeable future on the Peninsula as if it would not go. But really, about the war in the Crimea at the conference in Kiev spoke much and willingly. However, mainly the one that occurred in 1853-1856.
So, in his speech, Howard reasoned: «In 1856, during the Crimean war, British Admiral Lyons led the Anglo-French fleet in the sea of Azov. He has developed a naval strategy that led to the defeat of Russia in Sevastopol, the victory of France and Britain in the Crimean war. They cut off the supply of provisions to the Crimea, to the Russian Navy, who was in Sevastopol, and it is not allowed to complete the operation in the region. It is important that we remember the lessons of history. It is important to understand that the role of the Navy in the Azov and Black seas is very high.»
The hint is more than clear, isn’t it? If today the Americans and their allies, as once Admiral Lyons, managed to organize a real naval blockade of the Peninsula, would make the lives of the Crimean people really unbearable, do not rule out in Washington and Kiev, Moscow, Crimea would cost too much. And then the region finally became «Ukrainian or deserted».
However, to establish a tight blockade of the Russian Peninsula on the Black and Azov seas because they need a lot of power, isn’t it? How about this? After all, the ships of the 6th fleet of the United States and its NATO allies, constantly cruising along the Mediterranean sea, international agreements have very limited opportunities to stay in these waters. Break important agreements and through the Bosphorus against all odds to break closer to the Crimea? This is a big war with Russia with no apparent chance of success.
What remains? An impenetrable blockade of the Crimea from the sea, it turns out, needs to establish itself in Kiev. Their own. Just where to get them, if the Ukrainian Navy has long remained a trace? From the Jamestown Foundation ready tip. Again listen to Howard: «Trident is an important component of Ukrainian national symbols. And the sea is also an important part of the Ukrainian national identity… We heard about a «creeping offensive» in the Donbass, in particular, in the context of Avdiivka events on strengthening the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. I want to encourage the Ukrainian Navy to think about your «creeping attack» with the use of the «mosquito fleet»… the «Mosquito fleet» can play a role in the defense strategy of the Navy. Not only in terms of the protection of Donbass, but for 3 thousand kilometers sea border, which Ukraine has in the Black sea».
So, «creeping approach» to the Crimea from the sea. Already abandoned construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait, the «mosquito fleet» of Ukraine are tightly clustered around the shores of the Peninsula and should hurts lead our transit. Black sea fleet ships from the Caucasus port with a cargo of ammunition, fuel and food to fight erupt in besieged Sevastopol in may-June 1942. Oil painting on govardovskii.
Spoils the landscape a little. To stop the Russian builders of the bridge, the US has only one year left after December 2018 thereon to the famous resort fun run cars, and a year — and trains. And it is simply impossible to imagine what forces should be the new sanctions Washington in order to stop this process in a few months remaining until launch. This is the first. And secondly: how will Kiev «mosquito fleet» in an amount sufficient for at least any significant blockade?
At the conference, it is almost never said. But there’s too much evidence that this topic is being actively discussed by the Americans and the Ukrainian authorities.
Then, at the conference, the most promising prospects in this area drew the commander of Ukrainian Navy Vice-Admiral Voronchenko. According to him, in 2019 it will have the first production missile boat project 58260 code «LAN». Perhaps, the money that will give the Pentagon. Such combat units, pointed out Vice Admiral, will soon become the basis of the strike components of the «mosquito fleet» of Ukraine. And they will — you won’t believe! — as many as three. Not enough for an impenetrable blockade of the Crimea, but what can you do against the harsh economic realities?
Yet, according to the commander, there is only a rough draft «deer.» Not identified even plant for future construction. Whether in Nikolaev, in Kiev.
However we will be lenient: for example, a couple of years Voronchenko dreams will magically come true and all of his marvelous three boats swung on the waves near the Odessa docks. Will they risk the Crimea?
It is known that boats 58260 will have to adopt too, you have not yet created the Ukrainian subsonic anti-ship cruise missile «Neptune», with four launchers. Tests of the «Neptune» at the time, was announced for 2015. But not happened so far. And why? The catch in the technical competencies. Kyiv designers, especially not to fool, took the engine, since Soviet times, produced in Zaporozhye aviation cruise missile X-55 (the air force of the USSR adopted in 1983). So with the engine and fuel problems in Kiev was not.
But all the Ukrainian disaster was that the Soviet Union X-55 was designed for firing at stationary coastal facilities. That is — in the fixed in advance and well developed targets. The ships beat will not work, as they will shy away from the blow. Need of homing (GOS), comprising at the final stage of a missile. And the GOS in Ukraine, did no one ever. Here at this dead end and ran the project «Neptune».
We will not diminish the possibilities of Ukrainian engineering school. I guess when something for precision-guided cruise missiles of their own they will do. Or the West will help technology. Then, based on known parameters of perspective, «Neptune», get the analogue of the Russian subsonic anti-ship missiles Kh-35 «Uran», which today is put, for example, our relatively new corvettes and patrol ships of project 11540 «Hawk». Well, it is the Russian «Caliber» was not.
However, I repeat, suppose that the «Neptune» Ukraine will work and the complex will be in time adopted, together with the tiny «Deer» (with a displacement of 400-450 tons). Limit the range of 100-130 kilometers and subsonic flight will make the new Ukrainian weapons easy prey to the Russian naval air defense system. Could get the massive use of these missiles, but where they gather, if three «Deer» there will be no more than 12 launchers? And that is if all three will be able to go to sea and get to the turn start.
No, even in the sweetest dreams of Ukrainian admirals such forces does not block the Crimea. You can certainly rely on the kind transatlantic uncle who will help Kiev with a ship part. And some hope it seems to be hovering in the air. Announced that the United States has invited Ukraine to take out of mothballs a couple of large patrol boats of the type «island». But those are generally no missile weapons. Yes and pick up of the boat only, paying Washington $ 10 million for upgrading old units in order for training to work on their Ukrainian crews.
In General, blockade of the Peninsula from the sea as it is not visible. In the meantime, both sides of the ocean will decide what to do with this idea — Russia will put into operation the Crimean bridge. And another vengeful military-political bubble of Kiev loud burst.
From the files of «SP»
Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown Foundation) — an American non-governmental research organization established in 1984 by William Casey (then Director of the CIA) to work with Soviet dissidents. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the mission of the Foundation is called «informing policymakers and the broader political community about events and trends in those societies which are strategically or tactically important to the United States and which frequently restrict access to such information.» The governing Board of the Fund at various times included former US presidential Advisor on national security Zbigniew Brzezinski, former Vice-President Richard Cheney, former CIA Director James Woolsey.