Last Friday, following the meeting of the Bank of Russia’s forecast, the growth rate of deposits of physical persons in the banking system in the current year was lowered to 2-4%, whereas previously the regulator had forecast this index at the level of 7-9%. The population was less to preserve, and at the same time banks there is a surplus of liquidity, which led to the absence of a struggle for investors.
As said Friday the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, «we consider that a natural process at this stage are the consumption growth and lower propensity to savings.» While still less than a month ago, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev predicted that the growth rate of total Bank deposits in 2017 will be at the level of 7-9%, «towards the upper end of this forecast».
Reasons for the decline of the growth rate of deposits of only two: low real incomes and low interest rates in banks, explains the Director of Department of retail business of RosEvroBank Anton Suvorkin. After 2015 the real incomes of Russians continue to fall, and, given the devaluation and inflation risks, the negative trend will continue. Therefore, from this point of view, the forecast reduction is logical. In addition, the Bank of Russia reduces interest rates, leading to a drop in the General level of rates in banks, but banks are not experiencing liquidity problems, does not encourage people to carry the money to them. And, unfortunately, there is little ground for a serious inflow of deposits in banks.
In society there is a change of concepts about investments and savings: it’s amazing, been waiting for this for the last 18 years, but it happens, said General Director of IFC «Mani Fanny» Alexander Shustov. The average rate on Bank deposits among the top 20 banks is around 8% per annum, and every citizen understand that this yield barely can protect it from inflation. Simultaneously, households, survivors of the devaluation of the ruble, realize that to freeze the funds on Deposit for a year, receiving a yield on the inflation or slightly above — means strongly to risk their savings, which at the next devaluation can depreciate in two or more times.
And gradually the ratio of investment to changes this help and active advertising brokers, and legislative changes such as the emergence of IMS, folk OFZ. People begin to think «outside of the Deposit», and looking at the current level of Deposit interest rates go to other tools. In 2015, was revealed to 86 thousand of IIS, and at the end of 2016 — there are 192 thousand, there are good dynamics, although as yet little coverage of the population. The first issue of OFZs for the population was completely sold out in 24 working days, whereas the Ministry of Finance took for their implementation is six months. The average age of investors, according to Sberbank 57 years, that is, wealthy retirees, who are likely to shift from cash or deposits in the BFL.
It’s not like Alexander Shustov that they have nothing to invest, and the youth, it can be assumed, has fewer savings, so keep them on Bank cards with interest on the balance that can also give a good percentage (about 6-7%) without the need to «freeze» the money. Therefore, the growth of funds on Bank deposits will continue to decline, the expected rate of approximately 4-5% per year.
Real incomes of the population, expects Anton Suvorkin, will start to rise in 2018, but growth is unlikely to be strong, so some recovery in the sector should feel in the second half of next year. Much will depend on financial conditions in the banking sector. If the Central Bank will withdraw ruble liquidity, banks will be forced to raise rates, competition for the money of Russians will increase.