«The ruble will drop to the end of the year»: the border of the weakening of the Russian currency

According to analysts, the ruble will be until the end of the year in the range of 58-59 per dollar. While some weakening of the Russian currency remains quite likely scenario.

At the opening on Tuesday the ruble is stable against the currencies. The dollar calculations «tomorrow» at 10.00 GMT on Tuesday decreased by 2 pennies — to 57,95 of the ruble, the Euro rate — also on 2 kopecks to the ruble 67,52.

According to analysts at Promsvyazbank, the Russian currency will remain before end of the year in a narrow range — 58-59 rubles per dollar.

«The main risk for the ruble at the moment — the continued growth in global debt markets, which may be reflected in the dynamics of the whole group of currencies of developing countries, — said in comments to an «Expert» Promsvyazbank senior analyst Michael Poddubsky. — Other factors are generally balanced: the price of oil konsolidiruyutsya on justified from our point of view levels, the balance of the current account of the balance of payments to the end of the year seasonal shows a positive trend.

Poddubskiy the exact same notes that December is traditionally the peak of foreign debt payments, but in recent years the Central Bank in times of shortage of foreign exchange liquidity has tried to maintain stability by using separate tools. As an example, the analyst cites the increase in limits on foreign currency repo operations in December last year, or limits on currency swap operations in September this year), so, in our view, the impact of the factor of liquidity on the ruble may again be limited.»

But there is another point of view. For example, in Bank «Zenith» consider that payments on the external debt still affect the exchange rate, and expect the ruble to the end of 2017 will drop to 60 and even up to 63 rubles per dollar. «The weakening of the ruble in December could trigger the peak of payments on external debts of the Russian Federation in the amount of $ 19.1 billion, almost twice the total of payments in October and November, — warns Vladimir Evstifeev, head of analytical Department of Bank «Zenith». — Among the external factors is to allocate the risks more tough rhetoric, the fed, the potential change of its head. Economic indicators in the US remains positive, and interest in higher-yielding currencies may continue to decline.»

More about situation on the currency market, read the material of the magazine «Expert», «we can Do without green.»



«The ruble will drop to the end of the year»: the border of the weakening of the Russian currency 31.10.2017

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