The Ministry has proposed to stimulate consumption

In late September, Minister of trade and industry
Denis Manturov, answering the questions of journalists, voiced perspectives
the introduction in Russia of the program of food aid to the poor.

The main item mentioned by the Minister, was “budget
realism”. Roughly speaking, the money is still her main financial
Ministry is not found.

In fairness, it should be noted that
much of the blame in this situation from the Denis Valentinovich not. And the above-mentioned program, in fact,
is the brainchild of the Ministry of industry and trade, was developed by the office in late 2015. Approximately
at the same time, VTSIOM published a poll, according to which 9% of the interviewed Russians did not have enough money even for
food. And another 30% on food did not save, but even on the clothes means they
not enough.

Of course, for any “object of the liberal economic
experiment” on the part of either the IMF, or similar institutions,
this situation is not considered to be any abnormal. Well, you never know,
that someone money is not enough – the main thing is that hunger does not die. And
then Mututsi picturesque wonder why it’s in their wards,
that “save the science” the economy continues to fall? But whence it
to take the reasons for the growth, if people have anything but “daily bread”
income is not enough?

That is why developed countries have since the last century take
measures to lift consumer demand. Incidentally, Russia
happily escaped the suffocating embrace of the IMF, quite successfully
implemented for several years after economic
the crisis of 2008-2009, the domestic
automotive industry by encouraging the recycling of old cars
the results respectable voucher to buy brand new cars. The condition was one: that the purchase was made at Russian factories, and even
being a foreign car, but assembled by Russian workers.

And the program “mother’s capital”, if you think about it, had, in addition to
the primary purpose of increasing fertility, and even with the additional task of
targeted incentives of a number of important sectors of the economy, as well
construction and educational – it was for this purpose and was allowed
spend “mother’s money”

Approximately the same approach was laid out in
the basis of the idea of food aid to the poor. By the way,
the specialists of the Ministry of industry and trade, particularly “the Bicycle was not invented”, based on the
very good proven experience on food stamps in the USA
as introduced in 1939 and are still working. Is
now that they are granted on paper, but in the form of e — money at
plastic card. Thus, for example, in 2012, the expenditure
the us budget for the program amounted to 78 billion dollars, and
its users are 46 million people, despite the fact that officially
listed below the poverty line of Americans at the same time was 50
million people.

Of course, there is a lot of critics
this initiative, pointing to massive abuse, the same
“cash-out” coupons. And that for a modern American
farmers, not that of their ancestors in the era of the great Depression,
the program increases income for a couple of percent. And, in General, the current
Americans spend on food, on average, only 10% of their income – so
“food stamps” has become a costly anachronism.

But, as if mildly, Russia is not the United States. Yes, in General, and in
“citadel of democracy” is, according to their own statistics, fifty
million citizens living below the poverty line.

And just this year for the Russian
farmers paradoxical situation. One
hand, they gained unprecedented grain harvest of 113 million tons
(for comparison, in 2012, gathered 70,7 million tons of grain, and in 2013 –
92.4 million, in 2015 — about 105 million tons). To export the current
year, the Russians intend 40 million tonnes of grain, compared to 34
million a year earlier.

Yes, that’s
problem – according to the immutable market laws, the increase in supply
any product inevitably leads to a decrease in the price. Now the average cost of a tonne of wheat is 170 $ /ton, despite the fact that last year she was 180-200
dollars, and in the nineteenth it came to $ 250. Thus, we are talking about
the reduction of potential income including Russian producers
approximately one-third. As a result, receiving a record for 4-year crop,
they can earn approx the same money as in years
the relative “crop failure”.

Meanwhile, in order to grow grain,
farmers and agricultural enterprises need the loans for agricultural machinery, fertilizer,
fuel, wages of the workers. And these loans are based on
a certain level of future income. But will converge if the expense reports and
income absolutely all of the villagers?

In General, the program of support of domestic agricultural producers
the country needs no less than those of the automakers. Moreover,
that is not denying the huge importance of the last industry in which
each employee automobile has 5 smarnika”, it is necessary to understand
— in which case no new machines can be very long.
Proof many Russians still riding on still quite
workers “Zhigulyah”, which for several decades. But without food
will not last long. But because food security in the event
force majeure is without a doubt strategically important task
before Russia.

But the food aid programme from the Ministry of industry and trade just
provides additional stimulation of domestic agriculture
households – by actual government purchases its products from producers
for subsequent sale to the public, albeit only to the poor.
After all, ration cards, plastic you can buy only
domestic food.

An important point, also borrowed from the American experience 80-year-old
ago – the owner of this card can report on it and
own funds
which, in this case, double shopping – half
paid by the state. So, in theory, although the cost of the program
for the budget 250 billion rubles, the total amount
purchased for Russian food can reach
half a trillion rubles! And you are no sanctions from the world
trade organization – after all, it’s not protective duties on
imported products, and preferences to the more elegant order, formally
WTO rules are not prohibited.

It is worth noting that food stamps can play
a very positive role in the situation when the inevitable cancellation
European sanctions against Russia in the first place, unprofitable by the same
the EU, Russia will be forced to remove restrictions on import
the European food. Of course, some role in easing
trouble for domestic producers will play the fallen rate
the ruble, but still, and guaranteed purchase of Russian food
the food assistance program in the amount of from 250 to 500 billion
also will be not superfluous.

And finally, it is not clear why
so does the inescapable pessimism of the financial block of the government in respect of the alleged
failing to find funds for the aforementioned program? After all
the government is developing three budget scenarios: «basic»,
«basic plus» and «target» In this case, the first, “conservative”, comes from the cost of oil in 40 dollars for barrel.

But now, after formal and informal meetings of countries
OPEC agreed to limit neftedobycha, whereby
this figure, according to conservative estimates, will rise at least to 50
dollars.

Meanwhile, the share of oil money in Russia’s budget revenues
was this year 43%. He
the budget – more than 16 trillion rubles. That is, the increase in oil prices
can give a “bonus” Russian Finance somewhere half a trillion
rubles per year. And on food stamps requires only 250
billion.

So, I think, interested in performing so important for
Russia and its citizens support program not only poor people, but
Russian agricultural producers, we must make a much large
effort than before to convince the financial block of the government.
Since the benefits of implementing such initiatives in the social and
in the economic and in the socio-political stability in the country
on the eve of the presidential election is incomparable with the estimated costs.

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The Ministry has proposed to stimulate consumption 05.10.2016

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