The Russian government adopted a decree, which establishes the rules of implementation of transactions on organised markets at balance management in a single account of the Federal budget. And according to him, the Federal Treasury received the right to participate in exchange trading in currency and derivatives on it. First among the financial instruments in which the Treasury allocates money, currency was not.
Provided that transactions in foreign currency the Federal Treasury will be concluded «in coordination with the parameters of the monetary policy of Bank of Russia». All information about the transactions of the Treasury will be open. So experts without difficulty we can find out whether it coordinates its operations with the line of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, analysts for this reason there are different opinions.
If you explain the government’s position, giving the Treasury the right to sell a currency, it offers the Agency to capitalize on what is demand, with clear and limited risks by limiting the list of possible financial investment instruments, explains the President of Singapore Castle Family Office Eldiyar Muratov. In this case we are talking about the entrance of a major player in the foreign exchange market with greater freedom of distribution, which apparently will create new opportunities for speculators to volatility in exchange rates. It is beneficial and reasonable for the budget, it is interesting for speculators, but will affect the middle class who will feel the increased rate of volatility in the market, he concludes.
The analyst of «ALOR Broker» Alexey Antonov, in contrast, believes that the volatility will decrease. Now instead of one regulator with the ability to intervene their will be at least two, and therefore, the ruble will be even more manageable, he said. For citizens, organizations, and budget, this means that the exchange rate will be less volatile and predictable, however, count on the fact that, for example, the Treasury will be able to save the ruble in case of a severe devaluation, is not: neither he nor the Central Bank is simply not enough money for it. The head of the Treasury said that «from January 2018, the Agency can begin to buy foreign currency for current expenditures and additional revenues from oil». According to Antonov, this may mean that the plans on purchase of currency in the next year really is, and that means only one thing: the ruble will decline.
Level 58.8 rubles per dollar, which was established now, it is very beneficial to purchase the currency, and the task of the Treasury can suggest is to buy dollars so that it does not much have fallen off course. But in any case, the analyst is sure, if the Treasury will purchase, rate goes above 60 rubles per dollar, and then continue, as the reasons for sale of the ruble and ruble-denominated instruments enough. For example, a new package of financial sanctions from the United States, the prohibition to invest in the Russian OFZ market, weak consumer demand, the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank, the curtailing of operations carry trade in the currency market.