Yesterday, 6 December, Vladimir Putin announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election. He said this in Nizhny Novgorod at the meeting with workers of the automobile plant of «GAZ Group». While most investors were confident in this scenario, the ruble, rapidly Televisi yesterday to the dollar, its decline slowed. The most important event in the political life of the country was seen as a confirmation of the current political and economic course.
So, yesterday in the auction currency session of the Moscow exchange rate of the Russian ruble was 59,16 of the ruble, after the publication of statements of Vladimir Putin, he dropped to 8 cents. Slightly more noticeable was the decrease in Euro rate — on 21 kopecks, 69,84 to 69,63 ruble. This morning the ruble continues to decline against the dollar, but not as active as yesterday by 0.2% to 58,93 rubles per dollar. However, day trading is still to come, and it is likely that the trajectory of a pair will reverse, especially because the President’s statement had an impact on the market is weak and not long-term.
In turn, the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin said «Газете.Ru» about the ruble exchange rate in 2018 that «the ruble will not collapse.» As the Minister said, currently, the ruble exchange rate depends on fluctuations in oil prices, while it is much more stable than before. Also Oreshkin added that the overvaluation of the ruble, which was observed in April, offset.
Previously, the Ministry treated the prospects of the ruble is quite different. So, in October he published explanation of the amendments to the budget in 2017, where they forecast in November, the ruble will fall to 62.1 rubles per dollar, and in December to 63 rbl. the Forecast, as it is obvious, was not confirmed, at least in relation to the Nov.
«Let’s for a moment digress from the factor of the announcement of intent to run for the presidency of Vladimir Putin, who in General was not a surprise for market participants, – commented the analyst of «ALOR Broker» Kirill Yakovenko. – I would like to remind you that this week the Treasury literally gave authority to trade currency on the stock exchange, moreover, Oreshkin declared intention of the Ministry of Finance to pour into the market record volumes of liquidity within a large-scale intervention with the purpose of buying currency. So, before the end of this year, the Ministry will offer the market 203,9 billion rubles (this is, incidentally, an absolute record), that is, in the period from 7 to 28 December daily amount of intervention will amount to 12.7 billion rubles.» This means, explains the analyst that, starting today, the ruble will begin to actively push down.
The words of the Lord. that from the revaluation of ruble, observed in April, managed to cope, Kirill Yakovenko agrees. He also understands the position of the Ministry of Finance, which in anticipation of tougher sanctions, which can result in restrictions on transactions with Russian Federal loan bonds for non-residents, actively buying the currency. But to say that 63-65 rubles per dollar at current quotations of oil above $ 63 per barrel is a fair rate, according to the analyst, it is difficult, because the fair rate is not set to the result of manual control and intervention.
On the whole, is to accept the fact, says Kirill Yakovenko that we are talking about politics the devaluation of the ruble, and not on the influence of market factors that could reduce the rate of the allegedly overvalued the ruble, as, on the contrary, now there are all conditions for strengthening the national currency.
The focus of investors today daily purchases of foreign currency by the Finance Ministry, which has been increased from 5.8 billion to 12.7 billion rubles, said Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst with the social network for investors eToro in Russia and the CIS. It can be about 50% of all income in the currency of the Russian financial system and further worsen the situation with monetary liquidity. But in any case, the analyst believes, to expect a significant drop in the national currency: the rate of 60 rubles to the dollar by year-end looks quite adequately and will hold all except, perhaps, those wishing to go on holiday abroad. According to him and in the beginning of next year, significant changes should not happen: no new sanctions, and with the proper growth of oil prices, the ruble may return to the level in between 58.50 rubles per dollar.