Re 2018-2025: no «Armata» and «Kurgan»

New state program of arms of Russia 2018-2025 will be announced in early July. Meanwhile, on 16 may it became known that the military industrial complex and the army will get for upgrades is less than it was planned earlier. And, much. Is 20 trillion. rubles — 17 trillion. Despite this, President Vladimir Putin insists on achieving by 2020 the national armed forces with modern weaponry at a level not below 70%.

According to official announcements, priority is given to development of land forces. This is largely determined by the aggressiveness of the West, from the Baltic to the Black sea. Briefly, here are the threats coming from Europe.

First, in Ukraine increases the likelihood of state persecution of Russian just because they are Russian. It is clear that Moscow will sooner or later run out of patience, and it will kill the «Bandera» bug. Second, rapidly impoverished Baltic countries are trying to convert Russophobia in specie, therefore, it is possible to expect any provocations. Thirdly, because of the migration of the tsunami in the EU, the growing political and economic instability. Fourth, it is mired in debt America, which it is convenient to consider the Old world as a space for a new war for their global hegemony.

In other words, faced with outright hostility of NATO, and also with the inconsistency and unpredictability of the administration of the tramp, Russia has to strengthen first of all his land army.

However, in contrast to the strategy of the Pentagon in providing American troops with ultra-modern technology of tomorrow, the defense Ministry aims to have the «good stuff» today, and in the ranks. In other words, is not to be between the past and the future, «if tomorrow the war».

Probably the biggest disappointment of the new seven-year rearmament is the fact that, by 2025, the T-14 will not be the main battle tank of our troops. Despite what was announced a order for 100 «Armat», most likely the procurement will be limited to 20-30 units per year. Thus, the most numerous will remain balanced for the price and combat capabilities of the T-72B3 or its upgraded version. The Russian armored vehicles will appreciate the new threat from a grenade launcher M3A1, which the US army is going to replace the current M3 Carl Gustaf.

It is also clear that the future tracked IFV «kurganets-25» and also wheeled armored vehicle «boomerang» are unlikely to be commissioned in 2019. In particular, it is still unclear which engine — YAMZ-780 or 2V-06 — choose to «Kurgans». There are questions and a 45-mm automatic gun with a telescopic shot for the APC or APCS of the new generation. In General, one can count dozens of technical problems, information about which was leaked to open source and which are yet to be solved by the developers.

Note that the refinement of military armored vehicles to mind — it’s not fast, especially because we are talking about a fundamentally different layout and stuffing than the predecessors. For example, over the BMP-3 worked for decades!

On the other hand, this is exactly the case when haste is like death. As a temporary measure, the Ministry of defence will purchase several hundred BMP-2M «Berezhok» and BMP-3, and make repairs and upgrades with the fleet of armored vehicles. By and large, the tragedy due to the delay of the «Kurgans» and «Boomerang» to organize should not be.

But with confidence we can say that the focus of the Ministry Sergei Shoigu will be air and missile defense. The army will continue to receive Buk-M3, tor-M2 and s-400. However, in the next period of the state program of modernization of the complex s-500, most likely, will not be purchased. It will have to Refine still long enough. However, a potential enemy has also faced numerous challenges on the part of new aircraft. In the Pentagon there is a clear understanding that the F-35 will not be able to provide air superiority and suppression of air defenses on land. Even if the Americans return to the plane F-22S, then this will not happen before 2025.

With high probability, changes in the state program of rearmament will affect aerospace forces. Renewed efforts for production of 50-60 bombers Tu-160 and upgrade with the standard Tu-160M2 testify to the delay input of the complex PAK DA. As for long-term aviation project, the PAK FA/T-50, the small-scale production of the car will begin in the coming years. However, major purchases will have on the proven su-35, su-34, su-30. You should also expect the purchase of a small batch of MiG-35. On shock helicopters Ka-52 and Mi-28N issues at all. The holding JSC «Helicopters of Russia» without orders definitely will not.

The whole hog will be downloaded and the capacity for the production of ammunition, and will double production of high-precision missiles, bombs and shells. This is due, primarily, with the conclusions of the difficult Syrian campaign.

As for naval forces, their modest share in the rearmament program 2018-2025 caused not so much by downplaying the role of the Russian fleet, itself, as the current moment. Our country is still the development of new shipbuilding technologies. In other words, the time carrier «Storm» and nuclear destroyers had not yet come to build them the old fashioned way is not only economically impractical, but generally ruinous to the budget. Only with the introduction of the newest system of SK Zvezda in the far East the government will finally have the opportunity to order a complex marine equipment with a large displacement, and at a reasonable price. So I have to wait another 7 years.

On the other hand, the Russian Navy will maintain the current pace of acquisition of conventional and nuclear submarines. Also, there is no doubt that the accelerated construction of guided-missile corvettes and light frigates that have proven their worth in the Syrian conflict. Moreover, the frigate PR 22350 class «Admiral Gorshkov» will be optimized to meet the new challenges of air defense. It is logical to expect the modernization of already having combat ships, including the «Admiral Kuznetsov».

Thus, the new rearmament program, on the one hand, ensures the containment of the aggressive NATO bloc, on the other — is based on the lessons of the Syrian crisis. As written by the American military expert Jay hawk, which analyzed the rearmament program 2018-2025, the Russian army is a «tacit acknowledgement of that sad fact that Vladimir Putin is perceived as a worthy negotiating partner with the West because Moscow impervious to political and military pressure. As before, the Russian weapons are designed as the last argument.»

Free Press

Re 2018-2025: no «Armata» and «Kurgan» 19.05.2017

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