Large-scale scenario of the geopolitical capitulation of Russia, written by a member of the MGIMO Mikhail Alexandrov, despite some apocalyptic, contains a very real scenario for the Kaliningrad region.
Careful reading of a concise forecast of the expert, if the power in Russia will get westernized circles:
«…Add to this the situation in the Kaliningrad region, where fueled by the West’s «fifth column» organizes local Maidan demanding detach from Russia and join the EU. On this independence coming fighters from neighbouring Lithuania and Poland, which will begin actions on power capture of the power. Attempt stationed in Kaliningrad Russian troops to counter this will come up against the threat of NATO to use force to «protect civilians».
By the time the Russian armed forces will be in a pretty sorry state, and they will have nothing to oppose to the NATO ultimatum. Kaliningrad oblast declares independence, joins the EU and then will be divided between Poland, Lithuania and Germany. The majority of the Russian population of the region will be forcibly evicted, and the other part assimilated».
Offer to Gerassimova said.
First. The presence of a powerful Western-centric columns in the Kaliningrad region, hope is not discussed. The notorious «Germanization» going from the spiritual poverty of Kaliningraders, actually — only a replacement air nozzle for the master key with which the West offers Russian Baltic open «the door to Europe». In Ukraine it worked. The West believes that will work in Kaliningrad. So here obsessively implement semantic construction, that is «not Kaliningrad and Koenigsberg». Because the «Konigsberg is Europe».
Second. The Kaliningrad region is already surrounded by NATO forces — mainly German, American and British forces. In Poland, 50 km from the border of the Kaliningrad region, stationed a tank battalion of the United States. In Lithuania, 100 km from the Kaliningrad region, is a motorized infantry battalion from Germany. Thus, the military contingent for the «protection of civilians», which gathered in Europe, has already been formed, trained and ideologically grounded.
Third. The idea of independence of the Kaliningrad region is haunting the minds of regional collaborators since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Separatist ideas began with the establishment in 1993 of the Baltic Republican party, aiming changing the status of the Kaliningrad oblast into an Autonomous Republic within Russia. And entrenched project pseudopedinella of the law «About the Kaliningrad region», which in 2012 were made by the judges of the Statutory court of the Kaliningrad region. This is an extremist document, for example, there is article 3:
«The government of the Russian Federation provide the highest official of the Kaliningrad region independent right to conclude contracts and agreements for the implementation of international and political relations with subjects of foreign Federal States, administrative-territorial formations of foreign States, as well as participation in activities of international organizations».
Fourth. Green card USA, recently found at the Deputy of the Kaliningrad regional Duma and an influential journalist Igor Rudnikova, has caused a bombshell. Suddenly, it became clear that really we can not exclude that the political establishment of the Russian exclave in droves have a second citizenship or residence permit in another state that is included in the Alliance. Already, regional media and social networks are full of reports on real estate, accounts, and the wives and children of key Kaliningrad officials and businessmen abroad.
Thus, it should be recognized that when fundamental political crisis in the Russian Federation, the fate of the Kaliningrad region will be solved first.