June evolution

The context of the campaign

The arrival of E. Macron at the Elysee Palace was without exaggeration the new reality of French politics. For the first time in decades by the head of state became figure that has no clear connection with any «system» the party, and obviously applying for the renewal of the whole political life. His victory only fueled the process of profound transformation of the political spectrum, the next stage of which were regular elections to the lower house of Parliament.

Since 2000, when by reform of the electoral calendar of the presidential and parliamentary campaign were synchronized in timing, the President’s party always surely won after the leader. The novelty of the movement E. Macron suggests that in 2017 the situation will be more complicated. For example, the winners would need to form a coalition with any of the «old» parties, which inevitably would affect the content of the course. However, even this tradition was not violated. «Go Republic!» (the name the movement took during the campaign), it formed the largest faction in the lower house without any assistance, in addition to Junior partners of the «Democratic movement». Genuine innovation was the scale of the success of the centrists, who received the order of 350-360 seats out of 577, though at some point they even planned more than 400 seats.

The reasons for such overwhelming advantage of the President’s supporters can be named several. First, played the role of a certain lethargy of the voters: the presidential campaign has turned too violent to the citizens after it was still striving as well to follow carefully the political struggle. Besides, there was a strong sentiment to «give Him a chance» to allow without interference to begin reforms, and to judge the success of proposed course later on the results. In the end, the turnout was extremely low of 48.7%, and 42.6% in the two rounds respectively. The movement of «go Republic!» willing to take advantage, once again mobilizing their forces under the pretext of acquiring a working majority for the implementation of the presidential program.

Secondly, all the other forces clearly did not have time to regroup after the presidential campaign. From the Socialist party to wait and not worth it: getting the worst result in its recent history (a total of 44 seats together with its allies), it only aggravated her already dire Straits. The Republicans after the defeat of F. Fillon has failed to articulate a clear position on how they will treat the new President, which led to the fragmentation of their electorate. In the case of extreme forces — left «Unconquered France» and the right «National front» — was confirmed in a curious pattern, talking about what their leaders are usually more popular than private organizations. So, two months ago, J.-L. Mélenchon won 19.5%, and its Alliance now — only 11% in the first round; M. Le Pen — 21.3 per cent, NF the same — 13%.

In the end, the impression of a triumphal procession «macrosystem» with a huge advantage almost all over the country. However, the majoritarian electoral system, and even with the low turnout, gives in this respect a distorted picture. In absolute values, the movement is also made worse their leader in the first round for candidates from «Go Republic!» voted 6.4 million citizens (of the country’s 47.5 million registered voters), and for the E. Macron in April and 8.6 million as a percentage of total number of citizens who appeared on the ballot, presidential movement got 28.2 per cent, but from all voters is only about 13%. So the craze of the new President, as it may seem from the press, de facto does not exist: in June 2017 rather dominated by lethargy and waiting. However, it is interesting that even in the case of the proportional electoral system, which periodically say different parties, the situation in Parliament would be confusing (the centre-right would be able to impose a coalition), but the power of the movement «Forward!» still would have lost her.

What to do next

For some time E. Macron should not be threatened by competitors engaged in their own failures, so he is free to embark on the most sensitive reforms. Now there are planned two to bill about the «moralization of political life» and the adjustment of the labour code. When discussing these and other initiatives will become clear how homogeneous the most. For many of the newly elected MPs the parliamentary work is new (came to politics from business, NGOs, youth, etc.), so we cannot rule out errors and contradictions between them. Some adjustments may occur in the composition of the government, which already weakened the position of several Ministers (R. Ferrand, F. Bayrou).

The Republicans, de jure, again, can be called the largest opposition party (especially since they still owned the majority of departments and regions), but the internal unity to them that doesn’t do much. The appointment to the government of Philip E. B. Le Mare, J. Darmanin brought confusion into the ranks of the center-right: parties find it difficult to take a critical stance to the new President if he brought her to his some representatives, even if is not of the first magnitude. Roughly in the late autumn of an election, the new party chapters (possible candidates — former Ministers F. Baroin, L. Voce, K. Bertrand), only after which it will be possible to understand which line will withstand the «Republican» — moderate «constructive» or hard right.

A deep transformation of the will and the socialists. The scale of this process is to recall the events of the early 1970s, when at the initiative of Mitterand, the party acquired a modern look. Both then and now SP it is important to eliminate rivals on the left: françois Mitterrand at the time, successfully pulled the rug from under the feet of the Communists, something like that needs to be done and the new leadership of the socialists on the «Unconquered France», J.-L. Mélenchon. Although to some extent the extreme left have an even greater moral right to the palm, because their leader is much more confident, made in the presidential election than a candidate SP B. Amon.

Finally, the internal process will occur in the National front, slightly increased their representation (8 seats instead of 2, M. Le Pen for the first time became the member of national scale). The line on the gradual trivialization of the extreme right practiced in recent years, does not remain without criticism in the camp of the party. In particular, F. Filippo already formed their own informal group of «Patriots», many go back to the classic francissco the program and to refuse all overtures to more moderate electorate.

While all parties are two ways of evolution. If the movement of E. Macron and further show its effectiveness, then other organizations may adopt its format and also to turn into a similar movement. While all of them will be to distinguish the fragility of ideological and political positions, the transformation of the detailed programs in the abstract Declaration of values. On the contrary, in case of difficulty «makronisos» can prevail the opposite trend to the new division of the party. Then by 2022, the stage should return to the classic games, clearly differing from other program priorities and leading the fight on the familiar rules.



June evolution 19.06.2017

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