President of the Center for system analysis Rostislav Ishchenko commented on the conspiracy theory that Donald trump is an American Boris Yeltsin, and Obama – Gorbachev.
«A lot of things can be discussed in all seriousness. The fact that I can’t bother anyone to discuss anything, draw a point not disputed. I usually set out his, and then I can compare. Discussions on political issues I consider to be counterproductive, simply because, first, a significant part of the discussions and present issues for example: I want to keep it, so it should be. In the second part they present the problem of a lack of conventional knowledge, and therefore people begin to conspiracy theories. As a rule, conspiracy theories are built where there is not enough common knowledge. Then you need some way to explain how and why it happened.
In principle, any two political figures if you want you can find some common points. Remember where ten years ago, maybe less, Russian opposition toyed with the slogan: Putin is Stalin today. Once I was asked to comment on the adequacy of this slogan, I said that you can understand it – even the adequacy of such comparisons – if you will change to the opposite: Stalin – Putin yesterday. Because here, as in mathematics: from change of places composed the sum should not change, and if it changes, it means that somewhere is stretch. As you know, Stalin called Putin yesterday no opposition – in General, no adequate political force in Russia will not.
Similarly, sin and any other comparisons. The only thing correct catch people who try to say that trump is the American Gorbachev, Yeltsin American, maybe if it was the thinking of the people in 1925, you would say the American Trotsky.
That’s right catch people simply can not explain. Indeed, in the United States occurred the same as in the days of perestroika in the Soviet Union – there was a split of the elites. This is the worst thing that can happen in the state. I will remind you that the great political analyst Vladimir Ilyich Lenin when he identified the symptoms of a revolutionary situation, a mandatory feature he called the elite division, because any revolution is nothing more than a riot, which you can easily suppress the case if the elite is United. Because never, no lower classes will not have sufficient levers to influence the situation chtobv to overthrow any power. And power overthrown only when it starts to crack inside, when the elite is split.
In the United States came to the elite division. Caught it correctly, so I say: trump – Yeltsin, no trump, Gorbachev, and Hillary – ECCB (??? uncertainty 32:25). They are on the verge of very serious problems, I would say even terrible events. But you know, any event can happen may not happen. From any point there are at least two exits, and in politics in General 22. So while they go – by the way I thought they is will be calmer and more appropriately, I believed that after the arrival of trump, they very quickly come to the national consensus, they not come to him.
Moderator: I think they came to a consensus: the trump is blown.
Ishchenko: as much as You want to be blown away, but this does not mean that we have come to a consensus. Yanukovych was blown away, and where a national consensus? Trump may be blown away, may not deflate. He made some attempts to find a compromise, but even that missile salvo, he has already shown that the main aim is not Syria, not Russia, the main goal is it. For their domestic political opponents main goal is it. It hinders them. They are first going to break his neck, and then deal with Assad, Putin, Kim Jong-UN and the list goes on.
They have been unable to overcome this split. But the thing is, remember, in February and in early March spun Soros(23:57 ????? UNCERTAINTY) independence for America, the event was stopped, only because in America the people began to assert the possibility of a new civil war. And by the way American political scientists noted then, there never was a split in the United States, they never stood so close to the inner confrontation after Lincoln. This split, the inability to overcome it, she already brought them once to the eve of the civil war. Now, if trump even blown away, this means that it can be easily removed. Or leave before the end of the term, or even be removed earlier by impeachment.
But trump came to power not himself, he was brought to power by a powerful group. This powerful group has its own economic interests, it is going to defend. They are in conflict with the interests of the globalists. We see what are the slogans put forward the tramp. In the first place, he put forward the slogan of return to industry in the United States, the restoration of its economic base of America and so on. That is, he came out with slogans of support for what we call the «real economy». Support national industrial business, industrial capital. While his opponents relied on the support of Bank capital and international banking capital. These two types of capital can never be reconciled, they will always gnaw each other’s throats: if the financial wins, he destroys everything, first of all, industrial capital in the country. These people who brought trump to power, they are not going anywhere, no matter how much he was blown away. They will just nominate the new trump will be looking for new solutions. And if they have a few times failed to do it the legal way, they will go to illegal. Maybe legal, but illegitimate actions.
So now the United States as long as there were opportunities to achieve national compromise, the United States are in about the same situation in which Russia was in 1999. When possible a hard confrontation between the civil and domestic (36:30 – it is unclear what the parties are so weird) side, moreover, the main political group ready to it. And regardless of whether held or not held, but in 1999, the trend of economic development of Russia was extremely negative. Now in the same position were the United States: brink of civil confrontation and negative economic trends regardless of who wins. In the early 2000s, Russia emerged, though it seemed that the defeat can not be avoided. How will the United States do not know, but we’ll see.
Moderator: And what is at stake? In addition to these giant vehicles.
Ishchenko: Always at stake are money and power: power as a way of making money, money as a way of gaining power. A compromise is always possible when the resource base is enough for everyone. That is, when, conventionally, we have enough bag so we sat down, and shared, and we had something else even left for later. When only enough for one, a confrontation is almost inevitable. The only thing that can hold such a state of internal conflict, it heightened the adequacy of the elite or, at least, people who are in power. Because then, really, they can do all this and try to moderate appetites in order to preserve what for any elite is the most important – state. Because only the national government, their state, gives the ability to protect everything you’ve achieved. Regardless of, you have built a little doghouse like the Lord of the Pumpkins or you have the castle of Countess Cherry. Both protects only the state, if it is falling apart, it is bad both that and another. And Countess Cherries can run away even to another, and a Pumpkin to go exactly nowhere.»