Possible change of the Chancellor of Germany will not lead to a tightening of liberal legislation to stabilize the situation of refugees, says German political analyst Alexander Rahr. Moreover, currently the alternative to Angela Merkel as Chancellor of Germany no. He said this during a video bridge Moscow-Berlin on the topic: «the Upsurge of violence in Germany: consequences on the country and the European Union» in MIA «Russia today».
«I don’t see today any alternative figures even outside her party. Because the social Democrats and the green party, and even UKIP, it is all the opposition parties we have in Germany, they do not offer any alternatives, they also believe that everything should be done. Therefore, they also lose their ratings,» he explained.
In his opinion, if Germany would be any changes in the political establishment, and Merkel will leave office within her party — the Christian democratic Union. Speaking about the persons who can replace her, Rahr explained that usually involve the current Minister of defense Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the Christian social Union Horst Seehofer and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. The latter has problems with his health, he is confined to a wheelchair, he’s 70, but he is considered one of the largest and the most intelligent politicians.»
«But all this does not mean that all of these policies will be a radical change in the policy of Germany, with the exception of Horst Seehofer who knows how to do all the things that the politicians are unable to tighten laws and step back from some liberal norms, to stabilize the situation. In case we, of course, breaks out something unusual, if indeed the situation will be even more difficult than now», — concluded the expert.
We will remind, for last days in Germany sharply increased the number of crimes committed by migrants. July 19, 17-year-old Afghan was attacked with an ax on the passenger train, travelling from Treuchtlingen to Wurzburg, five people were injured. In the evening of 22 July in Munich 18-year-old native of Iran with German nationality opened fire on visitors to the shopping centre «Olympia», 10 people were killed. On the night of July 25 a bomb exploded in Ashaba, in Bavaria, 27-year-old Syrian, who detonated an explosive device, was killed and 12 people were injured. On the same day at the diner near the Central bus station Reutlingen 21-year-old Syrian refugee was attacked with a machete at a woman and killed her and two other people were injured. German media have called these events the «Week of terror».
A series of terrorist attacks occurred and in neighboring France. July 14 during the celebration of the main state holiday — the Bastille Day — truck, driven by 31-year-old Tunisian Mohamed Sahuayacan Buchlein, crashed into a crowd of people who watched the fireworks in nice. Killing 84 people, about two hundred were injured. On 26 July in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, two terrorists, armed with knives, took hostages in the Church, the result was murdered 84-year-old father Jacques Hamel, who cut his throat, another victim is in critical condition.
Note that the German authorities hoped to ease the immigration crisis with the help of deal with Turkey. On 18 March an agreement was signed, according to which Ankara was obliged to accept the return of migrants to Europe in exchange for the granting of visa-free regime. In addition, the EU has pledged € 3 billion in Turkey within the framework of financial assistance when placing refugees on its territory and has pledged another € 3 billion until 2018 on further projects related to the placement of migrant workers.
However, despite the pressure of the Chancellor’s decision on the abolition of visas with Turkey has caused resentment of European elites who strongly inhibited the decision, which was to enter into force in July, and after making in Turkey the coup attempt and appeared on the background of talk about the possibility of the return of the death penalty, Brussels, and even stated about the impossibility of granting a visa-free regime this year.
— Currently, German policy is experiencing a extreme shortage of outstanding personalities, — says a senior lecturer of the Department of regional studies and foreign policy, IAI RSUH Vadim Trukhachev.
The Merkel among charismatic politicians, too, are not attributed, but others — even paler. An exception may be except that the Prime Minister of Bavaria, Horst Seehofer. Striking figures are in the Left party and Alternative for Germany», but these political forces as Chancellor is not shining. So all in all with rarom can agree.
«SP»: — Is the whole of the German opposition, there is no party capable of taking over the running of the country? How would you rate their prospects?
The opposition at the moment represent four parties: two parliamentary and two non-parliamentary. Green have little chance to increase their representation in the Bundestag. In addition, they have a chance to be with the CDU government coalition as a Junior partner. But particularly outstanding personalities in the party now, no. Probably, in the following composition of the Bundestag will back the liberals of the Free democratic party, FDP, too, but the problem with «charismatically». Their ceiling is 6-7%, hardly more.
The left party is able to obtain about 10%, has no chance to sign anyone in the coalition. Gregor Gysi and wagenknecht — people are bright, but no chance of becoming anything more than the Bundestag. «Alternative for Germany» is gaining momentum, but it can get up to 20% (best case scenario). And it is in the coalition because of the rigid approach to migration cases and appeals to German national feelings, too, hardly anyone will go. With all the growing popularity of its leader Frauke Petry.
The Junior partner in the current coalition of the social Democrats. But their chances are small, because they lack colorful personalities. So, there’s only CDU, which is when all the problems will remain the leading force. There are, of course, Seehofer and his CSU, but without the support of the CDU his candidacy for the Chancellor not to press. Popular Bavarian Prime Minister, but his party is only valid in Bavaria. Perhaps it’s time for her to go on the national stage as an independent force. Then Seehofer a chance.
All parties, except the «Alternative for Germany» and CSU, are against a sharp tightening of migration policy. A left-wing, green and liberal and does criticize the slightest tightening. All parties, except the «alternatives» and CSU, are losing popularity on the migration crisis. But these two forces won’t be able to take control of the country. Except to the coarse fraction in the Bundestag.
«SP»: — According to Papa, if Germany would be any changes in the political establishment, and Merkel will leave office within her party. As far as possible in Germany, the transfer of power within one party? How do you assess the above rrom candidates?
— Schaeuble — the man is very old and sick, he will not become Chancellor. Von der Leyen is a hereditary politician. Daughter of the CDU politician Ernst Albrecht, she passed all steps of the bureaucratic ladder. With charisma it is the case no matter, but as human beings it is more attractive than Merkel. Von der Leyen — a mother of many children, and this circumstance may keep it in the part of bellicose statements. The childless Merkel, these inhibiting centres no. In addition, von der Leyen — not originally from the GDR, and therefore anti-Soviet and anti-Russian complexes it should be less than that of Merkel.
Seehofer — man is quite charismatic, is rapidly gaining popularity in Germany. It doesn’t help that his party operates in Bavaria. And to become Chancellor, his side should stand part of the CDU. Or CSU should gradually reach the national arena. Have Seehofer in the future may have a chance at the post of Chancellor, but it is unlikely at this time. Or if CDU will support it, support that will furnish a huge number of conditions, because of what his hands will be tied and he will not be able to fully pursue an independent line.
With regard to the transfer of power within the party, it’s from the point of view of the law is impossible. But indirectly it happens. The next Chancellor will be someone who will support the CDU. Because of the weakness or the lack of growth of other parties, the Christian Democrats yet.
«SP»: — How can improve or worsen relations with Russia, if Merkel leaves office?
— Improvement or deterioration of relations depends not only on the Chancellor. A very important point which parties included in the ruling coalition. It is likely that the Alliance with the CDU to form a «green» and the FDP, which treat Russia badly. Their representative may become foreign Minister, and then the relationship deteriorates. If, however, remain «Grand coalition» of the CDU and the social Democrats, there is little chance for improvement.
If we consider the figure of the Chancellor, when Schaeuble, would they not improved — he repeatedly allowed himself to speak out sharply about Russia. When von der Leyen, they are unlikely to change — maybe it will be a little softer Merkel, but not dramatically. When Seehofer they could improve, but a free hand in the Russian direction it is unlikely to give.
In General, the Russian-German relations in any case will remain difficult. Strongly, they are unlikely to deteriorate. If the coalition of social Democrats and Chancellor Seehofer they can improve, but still not dramatically.
«SP»: — How the position of Merkel and her party will affect the immigration crisis? How obvious it fault of the Merkel?
— Rating of the CDU is falling precisely because of the inability to cope with the migration crisis. He falls and personal rating Merkel, and in light of recent incidents, he will fall even more. The fault of the Chancellor it is undeniable that so much time and found no solution. If in the years of her reign in Germany came the terror (if not mass), with direct responsibility.
On the hand, the CDU plays that only CSU and «Alternative for Germany» in favor of a sharp tightening of migration policy. All the rest belong to the refugees and generally to the visitors more loyal CDU. Because from this point of view the lesser of two evils in the migration issue is just the CDU. On the one hand, they have at least some limits imposed. On the other, are not ready for radical measures as «alternative». And for the German society, where everything is still very much a sense of guilt for Nazism, even the most remote connection to him is unacceptable.
In such a situation many German voters simply will not come to the polls and Express their dissatisfaction in this way.
«SP»: — In September, Merkel is scheduled to meet with Erdogan in the framework of the G20. Will there be a sense from this meeting? After all, Brussels is actually made clear that will not give Ankara a visa-free regime this year, it means that Erdogan is not obliged to fulfill its obligations to refugees…
— The meeting between Merkel and Erdogan will surely end in nothing. Turkey will not fulfill its obligations to refugees, the EU will not give her a visa-free regime. And in light of recent events in Turkey about any improvement of its relations with the European Union and Germany to not speak.
Germany in the face of Merkel is reluctant to shift the decision of the migration issue on to someone else, but it won’t work. Germany will have to tighten the immigration rules. Otherwise the police security services simply will not be able to keep the country from great terror, and the budget is not enough money on the benefits.
None of the elitist, able to make a call to Merkel, no, » said the historian Alexander Eliseev.
— This is all Europe and the Western system. If only Left-wing party Linke and the «Alternative for Germany» rise up together as the party of anti-globalization.
«SP»: — How the immigration crisis will determine in the near future domestic and foreign policy of Germany?
— Of course, waves of migration will grow, eroding the nation-state. All States, not just Germany. In the interests of the transnationals, and in particular, «Transatlantic policy network».
«SP»: — How interested in this Merkel herself?
— Merkel, apparently, has its own interest in respect of the «Deutsche Bank», whereas now the ECB rely on a «Goldman & Sachs». They are two different ways of globalization. One way is based on the European (Germany in the center) version of globalization. The other is a perfect Euro-Atlantic.
«SP»: — whether Merkel or her potential successors to cope with the migration crisis?
— No, of course. Migration generated by capitalism and its thirst for cheap labor.
«SP»: — How similar is the situation in other European countries, for example, in France, in Belgium? Where you can expect the change of government and why?
The situation is similar everywhere. Blame capitalism. The change of power expected to be there, which will be a new alternative network of anarchist type, but at a new level.