Plus 8 trillion
As stated in the macroeconomic forecast of economic development in 2018-2020, in 2019, Russia’s GDP for the first time in the history exceeds 100 trillion rubles. To reach a record level will be possible by increasing the volume of industrial output, construction and investment. Your contribution to the indicator will make agriculture and the expected boom of consumer crediting, write «Izvestia» with reference to the text of the document.
In 2017 the total value of all goods and services produced in Russia will amount to 92 billion rubles. Support economic growth, believe in the MAYOR, will provide the implementation of several priority projects. For example, raising productivity, and digital economy development. In theory, the implementation of all the measures together should help to perform the assigned task by the President’s achievements at the turn of 2019-2020 economic growth of 3% and above. Although in its basic variant of the forecast of Ministry of economic development to deliver the economic growth in this period is lower by 2.2%.
What will develop growth
A major contribution to GDP comes from the construction of the sale of the constructed area, that is, operations with real estate more than 15%, wholesale and retail trade —less than 15%, and manufacturing — almost 13%, while mining gives a little less than 9%. As explained by the Director of the center for economic research of the University «synergy» Andrey Koptelov, economic growth in the next three years will be formed due to the recovery in consumer demand, including through increased consumer and mortgage lending. It is therefore important to increase the incomes and reduce the key rate of the Central Bank to «warm up» consumer demand and the economy as a whole.
Given the volume of state support of agriculture, the volume of which hundreds of billions of rubles, it is the farmers and exporters of agricultural products should be the driver of GDP growth for the next three years, he said. It is likely, according to the analyst, a small increase in the share in GDP from mining, if in 2018 there will be another collapse of oil prices after the deal with OPEC. Manufacturing should also contribute to GDP growth, especially given the ongoing import substitution in industries that do not require the use of high-tech equipment.
The only systematic risk that affects the GDP growth of Russia, Andrey Koptelov said tighter sanctions, which could adversely affect the stability of the ruble, and thus the recovery of consumer demand. At the same time, we must note that if we analyze long-term dynamics of GDP of Russia not in rubles and in US dollars, we will see that in 2015 he suffered a serious fall by 40% from two trillion dollars to 1.3 trillion. In the case of a severe devaluation of the ruble as a result of increasing sanctions, porogov 100 trillion rubles will be easily achievable, the analyst concludes.
You can see that if the government is making efforts at devaluation with this purpose, it will reach it effortlessly. But such achievements do you expect from a nation that the President and the business?
Not without volatility spikes
According to senior analyst IK «freedom Finance» Bogdan Zvarich, next year we can expect further improvement of the situation in the Russian economy. So, if in 2017, GDP growth will be 1.6 – 1.8 percent, by the end of 2018 it could grow by more than 2%. This will promote stable situation on the energy market within the OPEC+.
Plus, the analyst expects growth in investment, which will contribute to reducing the cost of lending by reducing interest rates the Russian Central Bank, interest rates on loans will continue to decline. From lower interest rates on deposits, one should expect growth of demand for bonds of Russian companies.
Yes, it recognizes Bogdan Zvarich, the foreign exchange market there are isolated bursts of volatility, in particular caused by the tightening of sanctions. However, the regulator is able to compensate for them through the activation of REPO transactions.
If you look at sector, the largest contribution to GDP growth can make a continued growth in agriculture, recovery in industrial production, which in recent months shows weak results. Growth in development and retail correlated with consumption growth.
Search domestic engines of economic growth
The risks to economic growth are factors of the external background, especially the price of oil, the global economy and sanctions factors, considers, in turn, Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief economist at the EDB. In these circumstances it is necessary to give greater emphasis to the internal search engines of economic growth, primarily through the development of infrastructure and improve productivity. Important reserves of growth is to increase domestic and foreign investment from a low base, the reduction of the size of the shadow / informal economy.
At the moment, I’m sure the economist, the greatest potential in enhancing economic growth is concentrated in increasing the productivity and efficiency of production. Another important provision can be a catch-up development of regions, both from the point of view of household consumption and investment processes. The experience of Kaluga region and other regions is evidence of significant regional opportunities for investment and production.