As stated in the study of REU named after G. V. Plekhanov, foreigners do not hasten to leave the Russian banking market, despite the sanctions and high risk. The total authorized capital of the existing financial organizations with foreign participation is growing and currently stands at 2.5 trillion rubles, write «news» with reference to the text of the document. More bankers are interested in lending implemented in Russia’s major infrastructure projects.
According to REU named after G. V. Plekhanov, by mid-2017 in Russia there are 170 banks, shareholders of which in varying degrees are foreigners. Before the crisis, in 2014 the number was 251. The largest among them are banks with Italian capital UniCredit Bank «Inteza» and the Austrian Raiffeisenbank. In recent years, the Russian market also came the Chinese and Korean capital: Chineselegolas, «China construction» and the Korean CAB, Akanbi Bank.
For 12 years, the aggregate capital of banks with foreign participation increased by 2.1 trillion roubles. Particularly attractive to banks with absolute foreign capital participation are for non-residents. Currently in Russia, 67, 45 of which authorized capital exceeds 1 billion rubles, which automatically implies the universalization of their operations, the study said. Such banks have more prudent credit policies than most of other Russian banks. Lower risk, according to the study, making them more sustainable.
Ideas we have lots
This factor should be added, and access to external funding on very favorable uslovoi that our bankers can only dream about. If such funding risk (attracting or providing funds at high interest rates) there is no need.
As explained by the senior analyst «Alpari» Anna Bodrov, the strategic infrastructure projects the capital will be about 10 years, the business gives guarantee of its safety and absence of obstacles in doing business in Russia.
The option of passing high-speed railway between Moscow and Beijing. This is the largest infrastructure project intend to Finance Chinese banks, but so far it involves a number of difficulties, including those associated with financial and legal control over the future VSM
We get the following picture indicates the analyst: Russia has a lot of ideas and projects at the global level and the need for their implementation, and foreigners — especially Asians — are free money. Theoretical tightening of anti-Russian sanctions in 2018, these business relations do not apply.
The factor of sanctions is overrated
Among the reasons of interest of foreigners to Russian assets of the EDB chief economist Yaroslav Lissovolik called stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, a record decline of inflation and the possibility of reducing interest rates and accelerating credit growth to companies and households. Also the role played by the low base effect from the point of view of the value of Russian assets and direct investment flows, the probability of overvaluation of the level of sanctions and external restrictions and the resumption of economic growth. In addition, significantly reduce the dependency of the financial sector and the Russian market from the dynamics of oil prices.
The inflow of foreign investments into the Russian financial sector in the coming years, says the economist, is likely to grow given the low base of such investment and possible improvements in the external environment. To maintain low rates in developed countries will also support the demand for financial assets of emerging markets with high yield.
They are impressed by Putin and neatly likes to take risks
In fact, explains the General Director of «Mani Fanny» Alexander Shustov that foreign investors generally feel a growing interest in more risky investments, watching low yields in developed countries and experiencing the greed of high returns in developing countries. They are impressed by the image of Russia and its President, which is stable, pursuing an aggressive foreign policy, rests in its policy on oil and gas revenues of the country, which given the dynamics of oil prices will soon increase.
While the banking business foreigners are accustomed to a very carefully, observing all the regulations and not issuing risky loans, unlike Russian banks, so the banking business in Russia is one of the favorite places for foreigners. They understand this area, perhaps even better than Russian investors, and can cope with the risks of regulation, giving them an opportunity to attract portfolio investors from other countries. Perhaps the analyst says, banks with Western capital want to profit from perturbate occurring in the banking industry, to pick up those market shares that will remain after the banks have lost their licenses.
The mobility of capital
Most likely, Alexander Shustov, the international investors have a sense of, for example, that the US stock market is overbought S&P 500 is at the highs, and the most cautious are beginning to take profits and enter the markets of developing countries. You need to understand that this capital is coming to us from international sites, even direct investment, very mobile. In 2014, immediately after the sanctions, he fell dozens of times, and then became negative. For example, investment from abroad in the Charter capital of Russian companies in the beginning of 2013 amounted to about 19.5 billion dollars, and a year later dropped to $ 0.8 billion, and in early 2017, it amounted to only 2.8 billion dollars. That is, we don’t even yet returned to the level of 2013, and on the rapid growth, however.
Probably Alexander Shustov says that some investors «believe» in sanctions, while others, for example, look at the history of the AFC System and Rosneft and fear for their private property, so they remain strictly in the sectors where they are confident in its security, or a portfolio investment. You need to understand that capital is very mobile, and if the ban on buying Russian OFZs will still be introduced, capital outflow is immediate, however, we must note that among the 30% non-resident holders Russian OFZs probably half are in the Cyprus offshore companies with Russian origin.