Europe will be electoral shocks

Brickset, the largest influx of refugees since the Second world war, a wave of terrorist attacks, insurgency of the populist, the next crisis banks, the tumultuous events in Turkey… According to Bloomberg, all the above phenomena show that Europe is in a state of permanent crisis, which seems not going to end. How the Old world will cope with these new challenges, show the election in half of European countries.

1. Elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, on 4 and 18 September.

Elections in two German länder will show the condition of the first European economy fit for the parliamentary elections in autumn 2017 Spice to the current internal situation in Germany adds to the growing prominence of anti-immigrant populist party AfD after the July terrorist attacks in Germany. The skeptics of the «Alternatives» are increasing ranking and the growing discontent of the Germans policy of Angela Merkel towards migrants. Far-right party is clearly preparing to challenge the Christian Democrats, Ms. Merkel.

At AfD, says Bloomberg, is a very good chance in the native land of Angela Merkel, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the elections in Saxony-Anhalt in March of this year, right, reminds Bloomberg, gained 24% of votes. Good chance at AfD in Berlin, which along with the capital is one of the 16 States of Germany.

2. Parliamentary elections in Croatia of 11 September.

The Croats will go to the polls for the second time in less than a year. Elections in November 2015, has led to the formation of a fragile coalition that broke up in June.

According to polls, most preferable chances of the social Democrats. The next government will seek to reduce the budget deficit and bring the country out of a record recession.

3. Regional elections in the Basque country, Spain, on September 25.

After the parliamentary elections, Basque nationalists most likely, again, to ask Madrid for more money and deepen autonomy. This will increase pressure on the constitutional model of the Kingdom that is already bursting at the seams due to separatist sentiment in Catalonia.

Experts predict that the Basque nationalists will remain in power, and the populist party Podemos, which opposes the austerity policies and spending cuts, will take on the election in third place, taking the voice as we left the separatists and the socialists.

4. A referendum in Italy, October

At stake is the career of a Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Renzi. The Italians will have to speak for or against the plan of the Democratic party major reforms in public administration over the past decade. The main point of the program is depriving the upper house of Parliament to send the government in resignation. The number of senators is expected to be reduced by two thirds.

A survey conducted by the sociological organization of the Euromedia in July, shows that 35% of Italians opposed the government’s plans, 29% support it and 18% are still undecided on their choice. Prime Minister Renzi, meanwhile, has promised in case of defeat to retire. Another political crisis is the most advantageous for a populist «five star Movement», which, in turn, wants to hold a referendum on Italy membership in the Euro area. At least one poll, «Five stars» have already bypassed the ruling Democratic party.

5. Presidential election in Austria, October 2.

The far-right Freedom party will get another chance to put his own man to the highest office in the country. The reason for the extraordinary presidential election was the decision of the court terminated on 22 may, the results of previous elections. In that election, the candidate of the Green party Alexander van der Bellen barely spared a «free» candidate Norbert Hofer.

According to the polls, is opposed to the migrants ‘ Freedom party is far ahead of the main Austrian political parties, but despite the odds predict the winner of the scientists are not at risk. The struggle for the presidency promises to be very sharp.

6. A referendum in Hungary, 2 October

Prime Minister Viktor Orban invites the Hungarians to vote on the question: does the EU have the right to force Hungary to adopt a quota on the number of migrants without the consent of the Hungarian Parliament? Orban is against Brussels plans to resettle refugees from Asia and Africa to European countries, including Hungary, but the chance to thwart the plans of the European Commission he bit.

With regard to the national referendum, the head of the Hungarian government’s all right. The vast majority of Hungarians opposes migrants. And yet in the referendum danger for Orban. If the turnout is below 50% and the results of the referendum will be declared void, his position in the country will weaken.

7. Regional elections in the Czech Republic, Oct.

The elections will be a serious challenge for Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka and will show how he controls the Social democratic party. Defeat or a convincing victory of social-Democrats will exacerbate the internal struggle in the party, aimed at the displacement Sobotka and replace him with a eurosceptic.

Meanwhile, according to polls, the party Sobotka inferior party of the Minister of Finance Andrew Babish – ANO. ANO opposed the deepening of European integration and Czech membership in the Eurozone.

8. Parliamentary elections in Lithuania, October 9

After the elections in the highest legislative body in the ruling coalition may include populist party the farmers Union and green Lithuania».

Now in power the social Democrats in the polls ahead of rivals. However, the gap from the populists is small. Most likely will make a serious competition of the Social democratic party and the oppositional Association «the Union of Fatherland – Christian Democrats of Lithuania».

9. Parliamentary elections in Romania, November or early December.

The Romanians certainly vote for the resignation of the current technocratic government. Romania could be political deadlock if the social Democrats led by the controversial Prime Minister Victor Ponta today will not have a majority in the new Parliament.

At stake is the economic development of Romania, which is now, reminds Bloomberg, the second-fastest in the EU, the growth of the economy. Under threat may be the financial system given the fact that the old government and Parliament have already approved tax cuts and increases in wages. In Romania, fortunately for Brussels, we are talking exclusively about domestic issues, have no relation neither to the EU nor to NATO, because all the contestants are equally strong supporters of these organizations.

Next year in Europe’s parliamentary elections are scheduled in the Netherlands (March 15, 2017), the presidential elections in France (April-may), local elections in Britain (may 4), the elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany (on 7 and 14 may) and the parliamentary elections in Germany (September). In almost all countries, the mainstream parties advocating for a United Europe with a single European currency, has rivals. Elections this and next year can determine the development of Europe in the coming years and its existence as a Union.



Europe will be electoral shocks 02.08.2016

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