Keep track of your money
According to the results of a nationwide survey of enterprise managers conducted by the analytical center NAFI in September 2017, assessing the current financial position of the business for the year has not changed, however, projections of deterioration of the situation began to sound more often than a year ago. So, if in 2015, the worsening of financial results in the future years expected 8%, today they account for 17%.
At the same time, like a year ago, 40% of entrepreneurs assess the financial position of the business as «good» and «very good». Another 43% of respondents believe the financial situation of the company «average», and only 16% give a negative assessment.
Financial health of the business also has not changed: still half of the respondents (50% in September 2017 and 51% in October 2016) note the deterioration of the business, 18% record a positive trend, and about one third (31%) indicate no change. The negative results noted by most representatives of big business (56%).
But the forecasts for the coming year have become more pessimistic. To improve the situation hoping 45% in 2015, and this year it was 36%. Positive forecasts tend to give managers of small companies (41%), and negative – representatives of medium businesses (21%).
As stressed by the head of corporate research NAFI Olga Stasevich, commenting on the results of the study, the pessimism of Russian entrepreneurs has reached the level of December of 2014, when the crisis entered its active phase. Confidence and optimism were observed among entrepreneurs for 2016, largely thanks to state support programs. She believes that in the coming year, key factors of business survival will be regular monitoring of the financial situation of the company and strategic planning.
Ahead of time
Rising expectations to reduce their own financial stability in the next year to the greatest extent caused by ahead of time, the cancellation of tax breaks on personal property for entrepreneurs, says practice partner «Industry» JSC «neo Centre» Alexander Raksha. This has caused a number of complaints and even prompted business writing letters to the government to reconsider the decision. But earlier, the government in the opposite direction to reconsider its attitude to the so-called improvement tax, and instead of the promised 2019 in 2018 will need to pay a tax for new equipment. First — amounting to 1.1% and from 2019 and more. Meanwhile, the abolition of tax holidays has mainly oil and gas, infrastructure and logistics companies, who purchase most of the equipment.
As another negative factor for business, he notes the mandatory introduction of cash registers for fixing sales and requirements to apply banking terminals for transactions. This incurs costs for acquiring and for new equipment. While in the province the work of the terminal will depend on the stability of the Internet.
Finally, if you do not grow the income of consumers, then why should the success of the business, Alexander says Raksha? You should pay attention on such factors as the growing number of bankruptcies among businesses, he said. The Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting remarked the acceleration of growth in the number of bankruptcies in the third quarter of the year, and in comparison with July-September last year, the number of insolvent enterprises more 12.4%. In some industries there is even a update historic highs, particularly in construction, engineering, food industry and transport sector.
He also recalled that in some regions business is seriously affected due to the frequent reviews of licenses of credit organizations. Only in a broken Tatfondbank, for example, had accounts about 30 thousand legal entities and they have got a number of problems due to the unavailability of timely own funds.
And it all grows
Everything is really ambiguous, agrees the managing partner of the expert group Veta Ilya Zharskiy. If you look at the dynamics of entrepreneurs ‘ moods, we can say that the peak of negative growth, for example, in assessing the financial situation of their own business, was in March 2016, he said. Then, 25% of respondents noted that the situation has deteriorated significantly, exactly a year later, in March 2017, adverse changes noted only 15%, which is the minimum value in 2015.
Interestingly, in March 2016, the peak of the drawdown is key for the Russian economy values for energy costs ($40 per barrel), and in March 2017 oil table already 52.6 per dollar after a rally lasting more than quarter. «I do not think – said the expert – that’s a coincidence: in fact, we say that dependence on oil is for the domestic economy so profound that it permeates all levels, affecting not only major companies, but even for the SMEs. In principle this is logical, given the fact that the share of state sector in the structure of the Russian economy accounts for more than 70%, while the private sector is mainly directed to the maintenance of the state order».
In fact, according to Zharsky, being the state in connection with the change of income from oil exports is a key factor of change in business sentiment, because, if the state has money, they will distributed down the chain to smaller and smaller actors of economic activity, if the money from the state, and business depressed. However, now the mood of the business affects another important factor, namely the tightening of fiscal policy at the initiative of the government in 2018, as well as the impending major reform in the sphere of state control.
Obviously, the expert concludes that control over all aspects of the business in future years will increase significantly, thus it is not excluded a significant increase in the tax burden, which again can not inspire pessimism. Hence, there is an obvious difference: expensive oil, the ruble is stable, inflation slowed to 3%, and GDP growth accelerated to 2%, but the business is again unhappy, and I must say, not unreasonably.