An end to the Iranian nuclear «thaw»

On the background of aggravation of the situation around North Korea and the American attack on Syria, the administration of Donald trump reminded that the US has another potential enemy – Iran. Secretary Rex Tillerson called this country a threat to the United States and made clear that his boss did not refuse the idea of reviewing the deal on Iran’s nuclear program, a prisoner under Barack Obama. Until real steps in this direction is unlikely to reach, but the political consequences of bellicose rhetoric trump in the end of the «thaw» in relations between Iran and the West is possible.

His statement Tillerson made at a press conference in Washington. He described as a failed transaction made in 2015 between Iran and the «six» of international mediators — the U.S., Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany (the so-called «Joint comprehensive plan of action»). Tehran, said Tillerson, still wants in the future to become a state with nuclear weapons. «Joint comprehensive plan of action failed to achieve the main goal of non-nuclear status of Iran,» the diplomat said, making it clear that the trump will seek a review of the transaction.

Actually, the idea described Tillerson, is not new. Even during his election campaign trump criticized Obama for a deal with Iran, which he even said in an interview, «one of the most stupid ones I have ever seen.» The essence of the transaction in General was consistent withdrawal, in exchange for measures to limit nuclear programme, international sanctions against Iran. With the adoption of a Joint comprehensive plan of action resolved one of the most complex and lengthy international crisis of recent times. The world breathed a sigh of relief, but in the US the deal was perceived ambiguously. Especially reluctantly, he took her to the Republican party where skepticism about the promise of Iran to develop its nuclear programme is typical not only for the current President.

A significant role in the formation of a critical view of the deal and played the position of Israel, a country where the opinion of trump as a politician, largely oriented toward conservative Protestant and Pro-Israel-minded voters of the us «heartland», can not listen. So Tillerson’s statement can be seen as a signal to voters of the current President: I haven’t forgotten about you, nor about his campaign statements.

And yet the real review of transactions with Iran seems highly unlikely, not least because of the legal opportunities for the United States with little or no. The transaction is approved at the level of the UN security Council, and, accordingly, to «play back» will only have through this organization. Then, Trump will have to convince at least China and Russia. Moreover, it is unclear what arguments can be given: information that Iran has taken any action contrary to a Joint comprehensive plan of action for today. That was stated in the relevant report of the Secretary-General of the United Nations. No claims to the Iran and the IAEA: Tehran is clearly more concerned about their Economics than the desire to once again test the patience of the world community.

What the current US position can really affect is the balance of power in the course of the election campaign in Iran. In this country, on 19 may there will be presidential elections. Almost the main intrigue was the appearance in them of an unexpected party – the ex-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His name is associated the whole crisis caused by the intransigence of Iran on the issue of its nuclear programme.

Ahmadinejad’s intention to compete for the third presidential term it was doubly a surprise in light of the position of the Rahbar (the Supreme leader of Iran), Ali Khamenei. At the end of last year, he strongly advised the former President, fend off allegations of corruption, not to participate in the may elections. And Ahmadinejad announced that the successor of the current head of Iran Hassan Rouhani did not aspire.

But in April, he suddenly changed his mind and announced his candidacy. «Our revolutionary leader has not commanded me, and gave advice, adding that it’s not binding,» explained the change of his position in an interview with Euronews Ahmadinejad. Whether there was really a private initiative policies, and previously seen in disputes with the Rahbar, or his nomination was agreed with Ali Khamenei, you will find out on April 26-27. To this date, the guardian Council of Iran should make public the list of candidates admitted to the elections. If one of them will be, and Ahmadinejad, then, it seems, Rahbar decided that «cool guy,» Trump should oppose his «tough guy». Or, at least, to intimidate by threat of his return to power.

An end to the Iranian nuclear «thaw» 21.04.2017

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